JapanReview.net Economist
Poll
The Magnificent Eleven
(July 2003)
A thirty second survey
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Section III |
Questions
A thirty second survey |
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1 |
If you had three wishes, what would you
change about the Japanese economy? |
|
R.
Jerram |
Fix the banks, massive money funded tax cut, death penalty
for corruption |
|
P.
Morgan |
Improve corporate governance by reducing
cross shareholdings dramatically, expand fiscal policy,
dramatically reduce regulations |
|
C.
Walker |
1) LDP and political dynamics,
2) the BOJ's stubbornness and 3) openness to foreign
ideas. |
|
J.
Koll |
1)
merge bad banks with postal bank / bad insurance companies
with Kampo, 2) raise BoJ rates, 3) establish Japan-China
free trade zone |
|
P. Sheard |
1) remove, in a credible fashion, the government guarantee
on large-lot bank deposits, and repeal the legislation
(passed in December of last year) introducing a permanent
and unlimited guarantee on zero-interest rate deposits
even after the guarantee on large-lot demand deposits is
scheduled to expire in March 2005; 2) inject sufficient
Deposit Insurance Corporation funds into the banking
system to allow banks to mark their balance sheets to
market without triggering a collapse of the banking
system; 3) have the Bank of Japan implement an
inflation-targeting regime (initially 2-4% range, with
mid-point targeted, but later 1-3% range, with mid-point
targeted) to be achieved within two years. |
|
R.
Koo |
1)
Force people to use land more efficiently so that better
and cheaper housing can be made available in the cities.
2) Increase holidays massively so that people can have
time to enjoy their income. 3) Increase fiscal stimulus to
fill the gap between household savings and corporate until
the majority of companies are finished with their balance
sheet repair. |
|
2 |
Best books on Japan? |
|
R.
Jerram |
Edward J. Lincoln, Arthritic Japan |
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P.
Morgan |
Richard Katz, The System that Soured; Michael Porter,
Can Japan Compete?; Karel van Wolferen, The Enigma of
Japanese Power |
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C.
Walker |
Karl van Wolferen, The Enigma of Japanese Power |
|
J.
Koll |
Chomin Nakae, Discourse by Three Drunkards on
Government; Yamazaki Masakazu, Individualism and
the Japanese; Maurice Pinguet, La Mort Voluntaire
au Japon ; Brian Reading, Japan, the Coming
Collapse ; Aikra Iriye, Power and Culture;
Sakakibara Eisuke, Beyond Capitalism |
|
P.
Sheard |
John Downer, Embracing Defeat (informative,
scholarly and very well written). Takeo Hoshi and Anil
Kashyap, Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan
(a good history of micro finance). |
|
R.
Koo |
Shosaku Murayama, Mekara Urokono Nihon Keizai ron;
Richard Koo, Balance Sheet Recession |
|
K.
Okue |
Peter Tasker, Dragon Dance (not realistic, but
interesting) |
|
3 |
Worst books on Japan? |
|
R.
Jerram |
Recently, Policy Trap by Taggart Murphy and Mikuni. At $39
more like money trap than policy trap. |
|
P.
Morgan |
Eamonn Fingleton, Blindside |
|
C.
Walker |
Too numerous to mention. |
|
R.
Koo |
Too many to list |
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K.
Okue |
"Economic White Paper" (Keizai Hakusho), some of books
written by economists (ignoring the reality) |
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4 |
And finally: Who studied less at LSE, Mick
Jagger or PM Koizumi? |
|
R.
Jerram |
Well one is a dynamic and radical leader, transforming
society and the other is a loser with a dumb haircut.
Maybe Mick is just smarter. |
|
P.
Morgan |
Koizumi certainly studied less economics |
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C.
Walker |
I
suppose they both hit the books, judging from lifetime
income (probably have to give Mick the edge on this one,
though) |
|
J.
Koll |
Same difference - both are awesome at managing own brand,
but still can't get no satisfaction… |
|
R.
Koo |
Balance Sheet Recession is a totally new concept and is
not taught in any school. |
|
Section IV Soapbox: A
final forum |
|
R. Jerram |
I am fed up of
reading "best policy to fix the problems"
stories/analysis. There are plenty of things that might
work, with the recipe depending on your empirical research
and your ideological preferences. But after a decade, I
think we can be comfortable with the idea that doing
nothing is probably not going to fix it. So I think the
interesting questions are political economy ones such as
why there is such "momentum behind the intertia" (as one
of my ex-colleagues once put it). |
|
P. Morgan |
Poor corporate
governance probably explains mostly why capital allocation
in Japan is so poor. Ultimately, the only way to solve
this is to allow foreign fund managers to control enough
stocks to be able to mount successful hostile takeover
attempts. Only this will concentrate the minds of Japanese
managers on capital returns. My modest proposal is for the
government to buy all stocks that banks currently hold,
and then allow foreign (or foreign-like) managers to
manage them in the interests of shareholders. |
|
C. Walker |
It's easy to
preach, and tough to implement effective policies.
Nevertheless, I'd still have to say that the country's
problems are more political than economic. There's no
great secret about how to fix a dysfunctional banking
sector - plenty of countries have done it. Monetary policy
is harder, but by almost any standard, it seems pretty
clear that the BOJ should ease much more dramatically. In
case after case, the political system precludes solutions
that would eventually make everyone better off, and defers
instead to small but well-focused interest groups. Because
that is extremely unlikely to change in the near future,
we as economists need to look at economic forces operating
independently of the government, rather than engage in the
generally fruitless exercise of working out what we think
the government ought to do. |
|
J. Koll |
By 2003, Japan
is stuck in a Buddhist truth-loop - All action leads to
suffering. The good news is that one should never
underestimate the ability and willingness of the Japanese
people to suffer together. That's why Japan's model cannot
be applied to other countries/economies. The bad news is
that one should never underestimate the ability and
willingness of the Japanese elite to impose more
suffering. That's why Japan remains highly relevant. |
Source: JapanReview.net 2003 Economist Poll |
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